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''Analytic confidence'' is a rating employed by intelligence analysts to convey doubt to decision makers about a statement of estimative probability. The need for analytic confidence ratings arise from analysts' imperfect knowledge of a conceptual model. An analytic confidence rating pairs with a statement using a word of estimative probability to form a complete analytic statement. Scientific methods for determining analytic confidence remain in infancy. ==Levels of Analytic Confidence in National Security Reports== In an effort to apply more rigorous standards to National Intelligence Estimates, the National Intelligence Council includes explanations of the three levels of analytic confidence made in estimative statements.〔() Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities〕 *High confidence generally indicates judgments based on high-quality information, and/or the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment. However, high confidence judgments still carry a risk of being wrong.〔 *Moderate confidence generally means credibly sourced and plausible information, but not of sufficient quality or corroboration to warrant a higher level of confidence.〔 *Low confidence generally means questionable or implausible information was used, the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or significant concerns or problems with sources existed.〔 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Analytic confidence」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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